A layoff is announced on a day, and it is decided weeks before, and the deciding leaves marks. Some are public: a filing, a funding round that did not come, a sector that is cutting everywhere. Some are inside: a hiring freeze, a cancelled project, a manager who stops talking about next year. Three signals together, in a quarter, are a reason to start the search while you still have the job. The search from inside is slower and calmer than the one from outside, and the guide on a weekly routine shows it can run at five applications a week beside a job.
Key points
- One signal is noise. Three in a quarter is a pattern.
- The public signals are in the layoffs page, the funded page, and the employment page on this site.
- The inside signals are the freeze, the cancelled project, the quiet manager, and the consultants.
- Start the search at three signals. Alerts on, resume updated, five applications a week.
- Copy your work samples and your contacts now, while the laptop is yours.
The twelve signals
| Signal | Where you see it | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| The sector is cutting across companies | The layoffs page on this site, filtered by industry | Strong |
| The company filed a notice, or a peer did | The layoffs page, by company | Strong |
| The last round was over eighteen months ago and no new one came | The funded page on this site | Strong for a startup |
| Revenue or growth missed in the last two quarters | Earnings, or the all-hands | Strong |
| A hiring freeze, or open roles quietly closed | The careers page, and the board on this site, where the company's postings drop | Medium |
| A project cancelled with no replacement | Inside | Medium |
| Consultants arrive to "review structure" | Inside | Strong |
| A new executive from a company known for cuts | The news, and the funded page's leadership notes | Medium |
| The manager stops talking about next year | Inside | Medium |
| Budgets frozen mid-year, travel and training cut | Inside | Medium |
| A merger or acquisition announced | The news | Strong for the acquired side |
| The company's postings on the board shift from building roles to finance and legal | The board, filtered by company | Medium |
Three of these in a quarter, with at least one strong, is the pattern.
One signal is a bad week. Three is a plan being made about you.
The public signals
The layoffs page on this site has the notices employers must file before large cuts in the US, by company, state and month. A company that filed in one state often files in another a month later. A sector where five peers filed this quarter is a sector cutting, and the company that has not filed is usually next.
The funded page shows the last round and its date. A startup burns a round in eighteen to twenty-four months. A company whose last round was two years ago and whose postings have dried up is a company counting months. The guide on startup jobs has the arithmetic.
The employment page shows which sectors are growing and which are shrinking by country, which says whether the next role is in this sector or the next one.
The inside signals
The hiring freeze is the first. Roles that were open close without being filled, and the manager says "we are pausing". The cancelled project is the second, when nothing replaces it and the people on it are not reassigned. The consultants are the third, and they are nearly always a cut: nobody pays a firm to recommend keeping everyone. The quiet manager is the one people miss. A manager who knows what is coming stops making plans with you, because the plans would be a lie, and most managers will not lie to your face.
The ninety days
At three signals:
- Alerts on. The guide on job alerts has how to set them so roles arrive by email as they are posted, without you searching every night.
- The resume, this week. With the numbers from the current role while they are fresh. The guide on how to write a resume has the method.
- Five applications a week. Tailored, from the alerts and from Match, to roles you would take. The guide on a weekly routine has the days.
- Copy what is yours. Work samples, your contacts, your performance reviews. Not the company's data. The laptop goes back on the day.
- Know the severance. The policy, if there is one. The notice period in your contract. The law in your country, which sets a floor in most of Europe and a filing requirement in the US.
- Ask three people for recommendations now. The goodwill is easier to collect before the day than after it.
If the cut does not come, you have a current resume, a warm network, and a few interviews that told you your market rate. The guide on how long to stay has why that is worth having anyway.
If you are in the room when it happens
Take the days the severance letter gives before signing. Read the release. Ask once for the thing that would help most, in writing: longer health cover, a later end date, a reference letter. The guide on the job search after a layoff has the first week.
Questions
Can I ask my manager directly?
You can, and a manager who knows is often not allowed to say. Watch what they do rather than what they say. The plans they stop making are the answer.
Do I leave before the cut?
Only for a signed offer. Leaving without one gives up the severance and starts the search with the clock running. The search from inside has no clock.
What if the signals are everywhere in my sector?
Then the search is across sectors, and the guide on changing careers has the bridge roles. The employment page shows which sectors are growing.
Does a layoff elsewhere in the company mean my team is next?
Often. A first round is rarely the last. Three signals after a first round is a reason to run the ninety days.
How do I keep working well while I search?
The search is five hours a week, in the evenings and on one weekend morning. The job is the job. People who search quietly while doing good work leave with references. People who check out leave without them.